MLB Best Bets Today | 2,500-Sim Edges | Mongoose Bets

Why these aren't tips — they're edges

A Mongoose "best bet" is an outcome where our 2,500-simulation probability is materially higher than the sportsbook's implied probability after stripping out the vig. That's the only thing ranked here. We don't sell lock picks, we don't claim 70% hit rates, and we don't hide the math. You see the sim probability, the book's line, the vig-free fair line, and the edge — and you decide whether to play it.

How the edge is calculated

For every market on today's MLB slate, the pipeline runs three steps:

1. Sim produces a probability. Example: Corbin Carroll 2+ total bases at 28.4% across 2,500 game simulations using today's lineup, pitcher matchup, park factors, weather, and umpire tendencies.
2. Book odds get vig-stripped. A +140 line has a raw 41.7% implied probability, but that includes the book's margin. Removing vig across the full market yields a fair implied probability — typically 2-4 points lower than the raw number.
3. Edge = sim probability − vig-free book probability. If sim says 28.4% and the vig-free book is 23.1%, the edge is +5.3 percentage points. At +140, that's a +EV bet over a long sample.

What we filter out

Not every positive edge is playable. The ranking drops:

• Bets with less than ~2 points of edge — noise territory where sim uncertainty alone exceeds the gap.
• Markets posted at fewer than three sportsbooks — line-shop signal is too thin to trust a single outlier.
• Edges over 25 points against a sharp market — almost always indicates a late injury, lineup scratch, or data the book has and we haven't re-simmed yet.

How to read this page

Every card shows the sim probability, the best available odds (and which book is offering them), the vig-free fair line, and the edge. Sorting is edge-descending by default. Props and moneylines split into tabs — prop markets run higher variance and shorter odds, moneyline markets run lower variance and full-game exposure. Both can be +EV at the same time; they're different slices of the same slate.