Live Results — Daily Prop & Bet Predictions vs Actuals | Mongoose Bets
HR Results
Daily home-run predictions vs actuals.
Slate progress
113/135 innings · 84%
Predicted
31.1
HRs
from 15 simulated games
Actual
33
HRs
+1.9 vs sim
Pace
1.27×
Running hot
Live6Final9Pending0Snapshotted 152026-06-09
Hit of the day
Andy Pages
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates · Paul Skenes
Sim %
25.3%
Implied
15.6%
market
Best odds
+650
Fanatics
Edge
+9.7%
+89.8% EV
Top Picks ROI
Final cheatsheet top picks · 1u flat · DNP/no-line voidsTop 5
Today
+2.74u
1/5 settled+274.0% ROI
1W · 0L · 4 pending
Top 10
Today
+6.84u
4/10 settled+171.0% ROI
2W · 2L · 6 pending
Long-shot of the day (so far)
Gabriel Moreno hit at 4.0% sim (+1000).
Coldest miss
Davis Wendzel 28.0% sim, no HR.
Edge ≥ +5% recap
9.1% (vs 16.5% baseline, n=11)
Hunter Goodman
HRColorado Rockies · vs Chicago Cubs · Colin Rea
31.0%
Best odds
+280
Fanatics
Edge prob
+3.6%
Edge EV
+17.8%
Byron Buxton
HRMinnesota Twins · vs Detroit Tigers · Troy Melton
27.0%
Best odds
+310
Fanatics
Edge prob
+1.0%
Edge EV
+10.7%
Andy Pages
HRLos Angeles Dodgers · vs Pittsburgh Pirates · Paul Skenes
25.3%
Best odds
+650
Fanatics
Edge prob
+9.7%
Edge EV
+89.8%
Miguel Vargas
HRChicago White Sox · vs Atlanta Braves · Grant Holmes
24.0%
Best odds
+390
FanDuel
Edge prob
+2.3%
Edge EV
+17.6%
Dillon Dingler
2 HRDetroit Tigers · vs Minnesota Twins · Taj Bradley
19.0%
Best odds
+500
Fanatics
Edge prob
+0.8%
Edge EV
+14.0%
Luis García Jr.
HRWashington Nationals · vs San Francisco Giants
18.0%
Best odds
—
Edge prob
—
Edge EV
—
Michael Busch
HRChicago Cubs · vs Colorado Rockies · Tomoyuki Sugano
16.7%
Best odds
+318
DraftKings
Edge prob
-9.3%
Edge EV
-30.4%
Braden Montgomery
HRChicago White Sox · vs Atlanta Braves · Grant Holmes
16.0%
Best odds
+270
MyBookie.ag
Edge prob
-11.0%
Edge EV
-40.8%
Ryan O'Hearn
HRPittsburgh Pirates · vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Eric Lauer
16.0%
Best odds
+810
DraftKings
Edge prob
+2.4%
Edge EV
+45.6%
Matt Olson
2 HRAtlanta Braves · vs Chicago White Sox · Erick Fedde
13.9%
Best odds
+374
DraftKings
Edge prob
-9.7%
Edge EV
-34.2%
Kody Clemens
HRMinnesota Twins · vs Detroit Tigers · Troy Melton
13.0%
Best odds
+471
DraftKings
Edge prob
-6.6%
Edge EV
-25.8%
Spencer Jones
HRNew York Yankees · vs Cleveland Guardians · Slade Cecconi
13.0%
Best odds
+543
DraftKings
Edge prob
-3.7%
Edge EV
-16.4%
Corbin Carroll
HRArizona Diamondbacks · vs Miami Marlins · Max Meyer
13.0%
Best odds
+480
DraftKings
Edge prob
-4.9%
Edge EV
-24.9%
Coby Mayo
HRBaltimore Orioles · vs Seattle Mariners · Logan Gilbert
12.0%
Best odds
+470
DraftKings
Edge prob
-7.0%
Edge EV
-31.5%
Brooks Lee
HRMinnesota Twins · vs Detroit Tigers · Troy Melton
12.0%
Best odds
+830
DraftKings
Edge prob
-0.5%
Edge EV
+11.6%
Kerry Carpenter
HRDetroit Tigers · vs Minnesota Twins · Taj Bradley
12.0%
Best odds
+451
DraftKings
Edge prob
-8.0%
Edge EV
-33.9%
Jesús Sánchez
HRToronto Blue Jays · vs Philadelphia Phillies
12.0%
Best odds
—
Edge prob
—
Edge EV
—
Nick Kurtz
HRAthletics · vs Milwaukee Brewers · Robert Gasser
12.0%
Best odds
+190
BetMGM
Edge prob
-25.9%
Edge EV
-65.2%
Alec Burleson
HRSt. Louis Cardinals · vs New York Mets · Freddy Peralta
11.6%
Best odds
+508
DraftKings
Edge prob
-6.9%
Edge EV
-29.3%
Randy Arozarena
HRSeattle Mariners · vs Baltimore Orioles · Trevor Rogers
11.1%
Best odds
+470
FanDuel
Edge prob
-8.9%
Edge EV
-36.7%
Mitch Garver
HRSeattle Mariners · vs Baltimore Orioles · Trevor Rogers
11.1%
Best odds
+500
Fanatics
Edge prob
-7.0%
Edge EV
-33.4%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
HRNew York Yankees · vs Cleveland Guardians
11.0%
Best odds
—
Edge prob
—
Edge EV
—
Bryan Reynolds
HRPittsburgh Pirates · vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Eric Lauer
8.3%
Best odds
+670
DraftKings
Edge prob
-7.7%
Edge EV
-35.9%
Jackson Chourio
HRMilwaukee Brewers · vs Athletics · J.T. Ginn
8.3%
Best odds
+300
BetRivers
Edge prob
-20.7%
Edge EV
-66.7%
Ezequiel Tovar
HRColorado Rockies · vs Chicago Cubs · Colin Rea
8.0%
Best odds
+595
DraftKings
Edge prob
-8.7%
Edge EV
-44.4%
Henry Bolte
HRAthletics · vs Milwaukee Brewers · Robert Gasser
8.0%
Best odds
+420
BetRivers
Edge prob
-13.3%
Edge EV
-58.4%
Jac Caglianone
2 HRKansas City Royals · vs Texas Rangers · Nathan Eovaldi
7.0%
Best odds
+525
Fanatics
Edge prob
-10.4%
Edge EV
-56.3%
Riley Greene
HRDetroit Tigers · vs Minnesota Twins · Taj Bradley
5.5%
Best odds
+500
Fanatics
Edge prob
-11.8%
Edge EV
-66.7%
Josh Bell
HRMinnesota Twins · vs Detroit Tigers
5.0%
Best odds
—
Edge prob
—
Edge EV
—
Gabriel Moreno
HRArizona Diamondbacks · vs Miami Marlins · Max Meyer
4.0%
Best odds
+1000
BetMGM
Edge prob
-7.0%
Edge EV
-56.0%
| Player | Matchup | Sim % | Implied % | Best Odds | Edge (prob) | Edge (EV) | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hunter Goodman Colorado Rockies | vs Chicago Cubs Colin Rea | 31.0% | 27.4% | +280Fanatics | +3.6% | +17.8% | HR | |
Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins | vs Detroit Tigers Troy Melton | 27.0% | 26.0% | +310Fanatics | +1.0% | +10.7% | HR | |
Andy Pages Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Pittsburgh Pirates Paul Skenes | 25.3% | 15.6% | +650Fanatics | +9.7% | +89.8% | HR | |
Miguel Vargas Chicago White Sox | vs Atlanta Braves Grant Holmes | 24.0% | 21.7% | +390FanDuel | +2.3% | +17.6% | HR | |
Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers | vs Minnesota Twins Taj Bradley | 19.0% | 18.2% | +500Fanatics | +0.8% | +14.0% | 2 HR | |
Luis García Jr. Washington Nationals | vs San Francisco Giants | 18.0% | — | — | — | — | HR | |
Michael Busch Chicago Cubs | vs Colorado Rockies Tomoyuki Sugano | 16.7% | 26.0% | +318DraftKings | -9.3% | -30.4% | HR | |
Braden Montgomery Chicago White Sox | vs Atlanta Braves Grant Holmes | 16.0% | 27.0% | +270MyBookie.ag | -11.0% | -40.8% | HR | |
Ryan O'Hearn Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Los Angeles Dodgers Eric Lauer | 16.0% | 13.6% | +810DraftKings | +2.4% | +45.6% | HR | |
Matt Olson Atlanta Braves | vs Chicago White Sox Erick Fedde | 13.9% | 23.5% | +374DraftKings | -9.7% | -34.2% | 2 HR | |
Kody Clemens Minnesota Twins | vs Detroit Tigers Troy Melton | 13.0% | 19.6% | +471DraftKings | -6.6% | -25.8% | HR | |
Spencer Jones New York Yankees | vs Cleveland Guardians Slade Cecconi | 13.0% | 16.7% | +543DraftKings | -3.7% | -16.4% | HR | |
Corbin Carroll Arizona Diamondbacks | vs Miami Marlins Max Meyer | 13.0% | 17.9% | +480DraftKings | -4.9% | -24.9% | HR | |
Coby Mayo Baltimore Orioles | vs Seattle Mariners Logan Gilbert | 12.0% | 19.1% | +470DraftKings | -7.0% | -31.5% | HR | |
Brooks Lee Minnesota Twins | vs Detroit Tigers Troy Melton | 12.0% | 12.5% | +830DraftKings | -0.5% | +11.6% | HR | |
Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers | vs Minnesota Twins Taj Bradley | 12.0% | 20.0% | +451DraftKings | -8.0% | -33.9% | HR | |
Jesús Sánchez Toronto Blue Jays | vs Philadelphia Phillies | 12.0% | — | — | — | — | HR | |
Nick Kurtz Athletics | vs Milwaukee Brewers Robert Gasser | 12.0% | 37.9% | +190BetMGM | -25.9% | -65.2% | HR | |
Alec Burleson St. Louis Cardinals | vs New York Mets Freddy Peralta | 11.6% | 18.5% | +508DraftKings | -6.9% | -29.3% | HR | |
Randy Arozarena Seattle Mariners | vs Baltimore Orioles Trevor Rogers | 11.1% | 20.0% | +470FanDuel | -8.9% | -36.7% | HR | |
Mitch Garver Seattle Mariners | vs Baltimore Orioles Trevor Rogers | 11.1% | 18.1% | +500Fanatics | -7.0% | -33.4% | HR | |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. New York Yankees | vs Cleveland Guardians | 11.0% | — | — | — | — | HR | |
Bryan Reynolds Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Los Angeles Dodgers Eric Lauer | 8.3% | 16.0% | +670DraftKings | -7.7% | -35.9% | HR | |
Jackson Chourio Milwaukee Brewers | vs Athletics J.T. Ginn | 8.3% | 29.0% | +300BetRivers | -20.7% | -66.7% | HR | |
Ezequiel Tovar Colorado Rockies | vs Chicago Cubs Colin Rea | 8.0% | 16.7% | +595DraftKings | -8.7% | -44.4% | HR | |
Henry Bolte Athletics | vs Milwaukee Brewers Robert Gasser | 8.0% | 21.3% | +420BetRivers | -13.3% | -58.4% | HR | |
Jac Caglianone Kansas City Royals | vs Texas Rangers Nathan Eovaldi | 7.0% | 17.4% | +525Fanatics | -10.4% | -56.3% | 2 HR | |
Riley Greene Detroit Tigers | vs Minnesota Twins Taj Bradley | 5.5% | 17.4% | +500Fanatics | -11.8% | -66.7% | HR | |
Josh Bell Minnesota Twins | vs Detroit Tigers | 5.0% | — | — | — | — | HR | |
Gabriel Moreno Arizona Diamondbacks | vs Miami Marlins Max Meyer | 4.0% | 11.0% | +1000BetMGM | -7.0% | -56.0% | HR |