💡Read each row as a claim the model made before first pitch: Sim% against the book's implied price. The gap between those two is the edge it was betting on — the outcome column tells you whether it landed.

HR Results

Daily home-run predictions vs actuals.

Slate progress

128/135 innings · 95%

Predicted

32.4

HRs

from 15 simulated games

Actual

26

HRs

-6.4 vs sim

Pace

0.85×

Running cold

Live1Final14Pending0Snapshotted 152026-07-24

Hit of the day

Luis Robert Jr.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Sim %

26.0%

Implied

17.5%

market

Best odds

+500

BetMGM

Edge

+8.5%

+56.0% EV

Top Picks ROI

1u flat · DNP/no-line voids

Final lineup

Top 5

Today

+1.00u

5/5 settled+20.0% ROI

1W · 4L

See List

Top 10

Today

-3.00u

9/10 settled-33.3% ROI

1W · 8L · 1V

See List

Projected · 10 AM ET

Top 5

Today

-5.00u

5/5 settled-100.0% ROI

0W · 5L

See List

Top 10

Today

-4.40u

10/10 settled-44.0% ROI

1W · 9L

See List

How well-calibrated is the model?

When we predict ~10% HR, ~10% should hit. Last 7 days, finalized games only. Click to see per-bucket detail.

Avg miss

2.7 pp

Sharp

Long-shot of the day (so far)

Ceddanne Rafaela hit at 5.1% sim (+650).

Coldest miss

Esmerlyn Valdez 30.1% sim, no HR.

Edge ≥ +5% recap

16.7% (vs 9.5% baseline, n=12)

AllHRs OnlyEdge+Pending

Luis Robert Jr.

HR

New York Mets · vs Los Angeles Dodgers

26.0%

Best odds

+500

BetMGM

Edge prob

+8.5%

Edge EV

+56.0%

View ball flightBooks & context

Drake Baldwin

HR

Atlanta Braves · vs Baltimore Orioles · Trevor Rogers

21.2%

Best odds

+494

DraftKings

Edge prob

+1.9%

Edge EV

+25.7%

View ball flightBooks & context

Heriberto Hernández

HR

Miami Marlins · vs San Diego Padres · Germán Márquez

20.1%

Best odds

+470

FanDuel

Edge prob

+1.1%

Edge EV

+14.7%

View ball flightBooks & context

Wyatt Langford

HR

Texas Rangers · vs Seattle Mariners · Bryce Miller

19.2%

Best odds

+416

DraftKings

Edge prob

-1.2%

Edge EV

-1.1%

View ball flightBooks & context

Kazuma Okamoto

HR

Toronto Blue Jays · vs Boston Red Sox · Patrick Sandoval

18.0%

Best odds

+420

BetRivers

Edge prob

-3.0%

Edge EV

-6.4%

View ball flightBooks & context

Matt Olson

HR

Atlanta Braves · vs Baltimore Orioles · Trevor Rogers

17.9%

Best odds

+341

DraftKings

Edge prob

-5.9%

Edge EV

-21.1%

View ball flightBooks & context

Eugenio Suárez

HR

Cincinnati Reds · vs St. Louis Cardinals · Dustin May

17.7%

Best odds

+567

DraftKings

Edge prob

+1.7%

Edge EV

+18.1%

View ball flightBooks & context

Pete Crow-Armstrong

HR

Chicago Cubs · vs Pittsburgh Pirates

16.2%

Best odds

+425

BetMGM

Edge prob

-3.8%

Edge EV

-14.7%

View ball flightBooks & context

Francisco Alvarez

HR

New York Mets · vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Roki Sasaki

16.0%

Best odds

+525

BetRivers

Edge prob

-1.5%

Edge EV

0.0%

View ball flightBooks & context

Paul Goldschmidt

HR

New York Yankees · vs Philadelphia Phillies · Jesús Luzardo

16.0%

Best odds

+525

BetRivers

Edge prob

-1.4%

Edge EV

-0.3%

View ball flightBooks & context

Casey Schmitt

HR

San Francisco Giants · vs Los Angeles Angels · Grayson Rodriguez

15.8%

Best odds

+525

BetMGM

Edge prob

-3.3%

Edge EV

-1.5%

View ball flightBooks & context

Joe Mack

HR

Miami Marlins · vs San Diego Padres · Germán Márquez

15.6%

Best odds

+725

BetMGM

Edge prob

+2.3%

Edge EV

+28.7%

View ball flightBooks & context

Austin Hedges

HR

Cleveland Guardians · vs Tampa Bay Rays · Shane McClanahan

15.3%

Best odds

+1000

FanDuel

Edge prob

+5.2%

Edge EV

+68.1%

View ball flightBooks & context

Rafael Devers

HR

San Francisco Giants · vs Los Angeles Angels · Grayson Rodriguez

14.9%

Best odds

+355

DraftKings

Edge prob

-7.8%

Edge EV

-32.1%

View ball flightBooks & context

Ryan Vilade

HR

Tampa Bay Rays · vs Cleveland Guardians · Joey Cantillo

12.9%

Best odds

+825

BetMGM

Edge prob

+1.5%

Edge EV

+19.5%

View ball flightBooks & context

Jake Burger

HR

Texas Rangers · vs Seattle Mariners · Bryce Miller

11.9%

Best odds

+456

DraftKings

Edge prob

-7.2%

Edge EV

-34.0%

View ball flightBooks & context

Dylan Crews

HR

Washington Nationals · vs Arizona Diamondbacks · Eduardo Rodriguez

11.7%

Best odds

+550

Fanatics

Edge prob

-4.9%

Edge EV

-23.8%

View ball flightBooks & context

Brice Turang

HR

Milwaukee Brewers · vs Colorado Rockies · Tomoyuki Sugano

9.7%

Best odds

+520

FanDuel

Edge prob

-9.4%

Edge EV

-40.1%

View ball flightBooks & context

Kyle Tucker

HR

Los Angeles Dodgers · vs New York Mets · Sean Manaea

9.2%

Best odds

+700

FanDuel

Edge prob

-5.6%

Edge EV

-26.4%

View ball flightBooks & context

Anthony Seigler

HR

Boston Red Sox · vs Toronto Blue Jays · Trey Yesavage

9.0%

Best odds

+900

FanDuel

Edge prob

-2.4%

Edge EV

-9.6%

View ball flightBooks & context

Cam Smith

HR

Houston Astros · vs Chicago White Sox · Davis Martin

8.4%

Best odds

+650

DraftKings

Edge prob

-6.4%

Edge EV

-36.7%

View ball flightBooks & context

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

HR

Baltimore Orioles · vs Atlanta Braves · Grant Holmes

7.9%

Best odds

+475

Caesars

Edge prob

-9.6%

Edge EV

-54.5%

View ball flightBooks & context

Christian Yelich

HR

Milwaukee Brewers · vs Colorado Rockies · Tomoyuki Sugano

7.7%

Best odds

+575

BetRivers

Edge prob

-8.9%

Edge EV

-47.8%

View ball flightBooks & context

Luis Rengifo

HR

San Diego Padres · vs Miami Marlins

6.1%

Best odds

+1200

Bovada

Edge prob

-3.0%

Edge EV

-21.0%

View ball flightBooks & context

Ceddanne Rafaela

HR

Boston Red Sox · vs Toronto Blue Jays · Trey Yesavage

5.1%

Best odds

+650

BetRivers

Edge prob

-8.7%

Edge EV

-61.6%

View ball flightBooks & context

Player	Matchup	Sim %	Implied %	Best Odds	Edge (prob)	Edge (EV)	Result
Luis Robert Jr. New York Mets	vs LAD	26.0%	17.5%	+500 BetMGM	+8.5%	+56.0%	HR
Drake Baldwin Atlanta Braves	vs BAL Trevor Rogers	21.2%	19.2%	+494 DraftKings	+1.9%	+25.7%	HR
Heriberto Hernández Miami Marlins	vs SD Germán Márquez	20.1%	19.1%	+470 FanDuel	+1.1%	+14.7%	HR
Wyatt Langford Texas Rangers	vs SEA Bryce Miller	19.2%	20.4%	+416 DraftKings	-1.2%	-1.1%	HR
Kazuma Okamoto Toronto Blue Jays	vs BOS Patrick Sandoval	18.0%	21.1%	+420 BetRivers	-3.0%	-6.4%	HR
Matt Olson Atlanta Braves	vs BAL Trevor Rogers	17.9%	23.8%	+341 DraftKings	-5.9%	-21.1%	HR
Eugenio Suárez Cincinnati Reds	vs STL Dustin May	17.7%	16.0%	+567 DraftKings	+1.7%	+18.1%	HR
Pete Crow-Armstrong Chicago Cubs	vs PIT	16.2%	20.0%	+425 BetMGM	-3.8%	-14.7%	HR
Francisco Alvarez New York Mets	vs LAD Roki Sasaki	16.0%	17.5%	+525 BetRivers	-1.5%	0.0%	HR
Paul Goldschmidt New York Yankees	vs PHI Jesús Luzardo	16.0%	17.4%	+525 BetRivers	-1.4%	-0.3%	HR
Casey Schmitt San Francisco Giants	vs LAA Grayson Rodriguez	15.8%	19.1%	+525 BetMGM	-3.3%	-1.5%	HR
Joe Mack Miami Marlins	vs SD Germán Márquez	15.6%	13.4%	+725 BetMGM	+2.3%	+28.7%	HR
Austin Hedges Cleveland Guardians	vs TB Shane McClanahan	15.3%	10.1%	+1000 FanDuel	+5.2%	+68.1%	HR
Rafael Devers San Francisco Giants	vs LAA Grayson Rodriguez	14.9%	22.7%	+355 DraftKings	-7.8%	-32.1%	HR
Ryan Vilade Tampa Bay Rays	vs CLE Joey Cantillo	12.9%	11.4%	+825 BetMGM	+1.5%	+19.5%	HR
Jake Burger Texas Rangers	vs SEA Bryce Miller	11.9%	19.1%	+456 DraftKings	-7.2%	-34.0%	HR
Dylan Crews Washington Nationals	vs ARI Eduardo Rodriguez	11.7%	16.7%	+550 Fanatics	-4.9%	-23.8%	HR
Brice Turang Milwaukee Brewers	vs COL Tomoyuki Sugano	9.7%	19.1%	+520 FanDuel	-9.4%	-40.1%	HR
Kyle Tucker Los Angeles Dodgers	vs NYM Sean Manaea	9.2%	14.8%	+700 FanDuel	-5.6%	-26.4%	HR
Anthony Seigler Boston Red Sox	vs TOR Trey Yesavage	9.0%	11.4%	+900 FanDuel	-2.4%	-9.6%	HR
Cam Smith Houston Astros	vs CHW Davis Martin	8.4%	14.8%	+650 DraftKings	-6.4%	-36.7%	HR
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Baltimore Orioles	vs ATL Grant Holmes	7.9%	17.5%	+475 Caesars	-9.6%	-54.5%	HR
Christian Yelich Milwaukee Brewers	vs COL Tomoyuki Sugano	7.7%	16.7%	+575 BetRivers	-8.9%	-47.8%	HR
Luis Rengifo San Diego Padres	vs MIA	6.1%	9.1%	+1200 Bovada	-3.0%	-21.0%	HR
Ceddanne Rafaela Boston Red Sox	vs TOR Trey Yesavage	5.1%	13.8%	+650 BetRivers	-8.7%	-61.6%	HR