Mongoose Bets
Mongoose Bets brings sports betting research for MLB, NFL, CFB, NHL, WNBA, and PGA into one place. Explore sport-specific models, compare sportsbook odds, and research teams and players before building your next card. Each sport has its own models and tools, built around how that sport is played. Coverage varies by sport and season.
No account required for the calculators. Review sport coverage and access options on the plans page.
New research · April 20, 2026
13 Days, 8,742 Edges: Mapping MLB Prop Market Mispricings →
Every +EV opportunity our model flagged in the first three weeks of the 2026 season, broken down by bet type, sportsbook, and odds tier.
About the Founder
Mongoose Bets was founded by David Campbell. He brings a 20-year background in audit, finance, and data systems to how the model is built and validated — the same audit-driven mindset behind why the site publishes its full methodology, inputs and worked examples included, instead of selling picks.
Inside the MLB model
The baseball walkthrough below shows one example of how we turn sport-specific data into probabilities and projections. Its simulation count, inputs, and outputs describe MLB; other sports use their own models.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Mongoose Bets uses Monte Carlo simulation to model every MLB game. Each game is simulated 2,500 times with randomized outcomes weighted by real player statistics. Rather than predicting a single result, the simulation generates a distribution of thousands of possible outcomes — giving you probabilities, not guesses.
Every simulation run models the game batter-by-batter, inning-by-inning. Each plate appearance outcome (single, double, triple, home run, walk, strikeout, ground out, fly out) is determined probabilistically based on the specific batter’s stats against the current pitcher, adjusted for handedness splits, park factors, and environmental conditions. Base running, defensive positioning, and situational baseball (sacrifice flies, double plays, stolen base attempts) are all modeled within each simulated game.
After 2,500 simulations, the engine aggregates results to produce win probabilities for each team, expected total runs (over/under), predicted final scores, and individual player stat projections including hits, home runs, RBIs, total bases, strikeouts, and walks.
What the MLB Simulation Models
Starting Pitcher Quality
ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, pitch mix, and handedness splits determine how each pitcher performs in simulation.
Lineup Strength & Matchups
Each batter’s season stats, platoon splits (vs LHP/RHP), and career history against the opposing pitcher are factored into every plate appearance.
Batter vs. Pitcher History
Career BvP matchup data (BA, OBP, SLG, K%, BB%) is used when a batter has faced the opposing pitcher before, weighted by sample size.
Park Factors
Each ballpark’s unique dimensions affect home run rates, hit rates, and total run scoring. Coors Field plays very differently than Oracle Park.
Weather Conditions
Wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and humidity all affect ball flight and home run probability. A 15 mph wind blowing out at Wrigley changes everything.
Umpire Tendencies
The plate umpire’s historical strike zone size, K rate, BB rate, and runs-per-game average are used to adjust game-level scoring expectations.
Bullpen & Fatigue
Bullpen availability, recent usage, and reliever quality affect late-game simulation once the starting pitcher exits.
Recent Form
Hot and cold streaks are captured through rolling recent performance windows, giving more weight to how players are performing right now.
How We Identify Value
After simulating each game, the engine compares simulation-derived probabilities against real-time odds from major sportsbooks. When the simulation assigns a meaningfully higher probability to an outcome than the sportsbook’s implied odds suggest, that’s a value bet — a situation where the market may be mispricing the true likelihood.
For example, if the simulation gives a batter a 38% chance of hitting a home run but the sportsbook prices the prop at +320 (implying ~24%), that’s a significant edge. The “Best Bets” page ranks these opportunities by expected value, showing you where the simulation disagrees most with the market.
We also calculate Kelly Criterion sizing suggestions, which recommend optimal bet sizes based on the estimated edge and your bankroll — helping you manage risk while maximizing long-term expected return.
MLB Data Sources
The simulation ingests data from multiple sources to ensure accuracy and freshness:
- MLB Stats API — Current season stats, confirmed lineups, game schedules, and live scoring data
- The Odds API — Real-time betting odds from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and other major sportsbooks
- Weather APIs — Wind speed, direction, temperature, and humidity for each ballpark at game time
- Umpire Scorecards — Historical plate umpire tendencies including K rate, BB rate, and runs per game
Daily Pipeline
Every day during the MLB season, the simulation pipeline runs automatically:
When final lineups are confirmed (typically 1-2 hours before first pitch), the system automatically re-runs simulations with the confirmed lineup data for maximum accuracy.
Legal & Responsible Gaming
Entertainment & Educational Purposes Only
This platform provides statistical analysis and data-driven projections for entertainment and informational purposes only. The predictions, probabilities, and recommendations presented are based on mathematical simulations and should not be construed as professional betting advice or guarantees of future outcomes.
By using this platform, you acknowledge that:
- All predictions are probabilistic in nature and actual results will vary
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- You are solely responsible for any betting decisions you make
- This platform does not encourage or promote gambling
Responsible Gaming
If you choose to bet, please do so responsibly:
- Never bet more than you can afford to lose
- Set strict limits on your betting budget
- Never chase losses or bet while emotional
- Understand that all gambling carries inherent risk
Problem Gambling Resources
National Council on Problem Gambling
24/7 Confidential Helpline
1-800-522-4700
Legal Notice
This platform is intended for users in jurisdictions where sports betting is legal and regulated. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with all applicable local, state, and federal laws regarding sports betting in their jurisdiction.
Must be 21+ to use this platform in jurisdictions where sports betting is permitted.
Trademark & Copyright Notice
All MLB team names, player names, logos, and related indicia are trademarks and/or copyrights of Major League Baseball and its respective teams. This platform is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Major League Baseball, any MLB team, or any players' association.
All data is sourced from publicly available information. The simulation methodology, analysis, and presentation are proprietary to this platform.
© 2025-2026 Mongoose Bets. All rights reserved.
About page · Last updated: 2026-09-22
The statistical models, algorithms, and analysis methods used in this platform are protected by intellectual property laws.
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