Monte Carlo Simulation

Mongoose Bets uses Monte Carlo simulation to model every MLB game. Each game is simulated 2,500 times with randomized outcomes weighted by real player statistics. Rather than predicting a single result, the simulation generates a distribution of thousands of possible outcomes — giving you probabilities, not guesses.

Every simulation run models the game batter-by-batter, inning-by-inning. Each plate appearance outcome (single, double, triple, home run, walk, strikeout, ground out, fly out) is determined probabilistically based on the specific batter’s stats against the current pitcher, adjusted for handedness splits, park factors, and environmental conditions. Base running, defensive positioning, and situational baseball (sacrifice flies, double plays, stolen base attempts) are all modeled within each simulated game.

After 2,500 simulations, the engine aggregates results to produce win probabilities for each team, expected total runs (over/under), predicted final scores, and individual player stat projections including hits, home runs, RBIs, total bases, strikeouts, and walks.

How We Identify Value

After simulating each game, the engine compares simulation-derived probabilities against real-time odds from major sportsbooks. When the simulation assigns a meaningfully higher probability to an outcome than the sportsbook’s implied odds suggest, that’s a value bet — a situation where the market may be mispricing the true likelihood.

For example, if the simulation gives a batter a 38% chance of hitting a home run but the sportsbook prices the prop at +320 (implying ~24%), that’s a significant edge. The “Best Bets” page ranks these opportunities by expected value, showing you where the simulation disagrees most with the market.

We also calculate Kelly Criterion sizing suggestions, which recommend optimal bet sizes based on the estimated edge and your bankroll — helping you manage risk while maximizing long-term expected return.

Data Sources

The simulation ingests data from multiple sources to ensure accuracy and freshness:

• MLB Stats API — Current season stats, confirmed lineups, game schedules, and live scoring data
• The Odds API — Real-time betting odds from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and other major sportsbooks
• Weather APIs — Wind speed, direction, temperature, and humidity for each ballpark at game time
• Umpire Scorecards — Historical plate umpire tendencies including K rate, BB rate, and runs per game