AARON CIVALE

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

AARON

CIVALE

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Cutter36%88 mph

Curveball26%78 mph

Sinker18%92 mph

4-Seam14%92 mph

Matchup

VS MIA LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

VS

ERA

6.13

WHIP

1.73

K%

17%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	18%	25%
SwStr%	9.8%	11%
Chase%	35%	28%
xwOBA-a	.407	.315
Barrel%-a	23%	8%
HardHit%-a	38%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

3.8

K/GM

3.8

IP/GM

9.00

ERA

2.05

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

17% season K rate

Contact Suppression

23% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-friendly park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 12 starts

0 of 12 starts over

Last 5: 9.00 ERA · 20% K

5

3

3

6

2

2

2

2

5

2

6

4

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs MIA—

Tonight's Park

HR

+4%

Hits

+3%

2B

+5%

3B

0%

K

-2%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

83°

Wind

14 207°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+23%

K Adj

-3%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 4:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.