Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Andrew Alvarez
Washington Nationals · Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.82 · WHIP 1.49 · K 25% · 11 starts
ANDREW ALVAREZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
ANDREW
ALVAREZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam33%92 mph
Curveball26%82 mph
Slider22%84 mph
Sinker15%92 mph
Matchup
VS HOU LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.82
WHIP
1.49
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .342 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
3.3
IP/GM
3.78
ERA
1.38
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.78 ERA · 28% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs HOU—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
4 249°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+11%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 10:15 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.