BEN BROWN

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

BEN

BROWN

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Knuckle-Curve35%87 mph

4-Seam35%96 mph

Sinker23%96 mph

Changeup7%90 mph

Matchup

VS TOR LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

VS

ERA

2.10

WHIP

1.02

K%

23%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	21%	25%
SwStr%	10.1%	11%
Chase%	27%	28%
xwOBA-a	.369	.315
Barrel%-a	15%	8%
HardHit%-a	50%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

5.0

K/GM

5.9

IP/GM

1.53

ERA

0.89

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

23% season K rate

Contact Suppression

15% barrel · 50% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 6 starts

0 of 6 starts over

Last 5: 1.53 ERA · 23% K

6

7

6

5

3

4

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs TOR—

Tonight's Park

HR

-8%

Hits

-3%

2B

-15%

3B

+16%

K

+3%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

68°

Wind

8 158°

Rain

92%

HR Adj

+6%

K Adj

-2%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 12:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.