Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Blake Dunn
Cincinnati Reds · Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds
MG Score
32
F
Tonight's Matchup
21
Matchup
Avoid
vs Noah Cameron · LHP · 85.6 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
4.00
WHIP
1.26
K%
22%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
84.0
87.0
Barrel%
10.2%
6.7%
Hard Hit%
31%
47%
xwOBA
.311
.321
xSLG
.421
.445
Whiff%
28%
19%
Chase%
33%
27%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Noah Cameron.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
84.0
Barrel%
10.2%
Hard Hit%
31%
Sweet Spot%
37%
xwOBA
0.311
xSLG
0.421
Recent Games
Last 5
40%
2/5 games
Last 10
60%
6/10 games
Last 20
53%
10/19 games
Last 30
53%
10/19 games
AVG
.238
OBP
.273
SLG
.333
OPS
.606
HR
0
RBI
0
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Kansas City Royals | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/31 | Atlanta Braves | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Atlanta Braves | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/27 | New York Mets | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | New York Mets | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/25 | New York Mets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/23 | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/19 | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Blake Dunn
Cincinnati Reds · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
85.6 mph
Avg LA
14.8°
Hard-hit %
32%
Barrel %
11%
Outcomes (19 balls)
Home Run
1Triple
0Double
1Single
3Out
14Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.