Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Brandon Sproat
Milwaukee Brewers · Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.69 · WHIP 1.23 · K 25% · 11 starts
BRANDON SPROAT
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
BRANDON
SPROAT
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam32%97 mph
Cutter18%93 mph
Sinker17%96 mph
Sweeper14%86 mph
Curveball10%83 mph
Changeup9%92 mph
Matchup
VS PIT LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.69
WHIP
1.23
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 28% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .360 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.0
K/GM
4.1
IP/GM
2.66
ERA
1.03
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.66 ERA · 29% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PIT—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
2 99°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-3%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:57 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.