Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
BYRON BUXTON
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
BYRON
BUXTON
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
41
Grade D
Matchup
VS Parker Messick · LHP
90.3 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
41
VS
ERA
3.15
WHIP
1.12
K%
21%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.7 | 83.6 |
| Barrel% | 16% | 7% |
| Hard Hit% | 38% | 27% |
| xwOBA | .378 | .281 |
| xSLG | .583 | .386 |
| Whiff% | 32% | 19% |
| Chase% | 29% | 31% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.7 avg EV · 15.6% barrel · 38% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Messick0
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
85°
Wind
5 302°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:32 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game