Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
CASEY SCHMITT
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
CASEY
SCHMITT
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
70
Grade B-
Matchup
VS Bryce Miller · RHP
89.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
55
VS
ERA
2.18
WHIP
0.83
K%
30%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 92.3 | 85.4 |
| Barrel% | 19% | 5% |
| Hard Hit% | 54% | 33% |
| xwOBA | .486 | .262 |
| xSLG | .739 | .341 |
| Whiff% | 20% | 20% |
| Chase% | 36% | 24% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
92.3 avg EV · 18.9% barrel · 54% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Miller—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
-12%
2B
-15%
3B
-35%
K
+18%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:20 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game