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Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics

Chadwick Tromp

Atlanta Braves · Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds · in lineup

Tonight's Projection

Statcast · last 30d

Exit Velo
84.0
Barrel%
0.0%
Hard Hit%
24%
Sweet Spot%
29%
xwOBA
0.224
xSLG
0.287

Recent Games

Last 5
20%
1/5 games
Last 10
40%
4/10 games
Last 20
40%
4/10 games
Last 30
40%
4/10 games
AVG
.238
OBP
.238
SLG
.286
OPS
.524
HR
0
RBI
3
DatevsABHHRRBIBBKSB
5/30Cincinnati Reds1000000
5/29Cincinnati Reds3001010
5/28Boston Red Sox1000000
5/27Boston Red Sox4100010
5/26Boston Red Sox1000010
5/24Washington Nationals1000010
5/23Washington Nationals3000000
5/22Washington Nationals3202010
5/21Miami Marlins3100010
5/19Miami Marlins1100000

Spray Chart

Spray Rain
200 ft300 ft400 ftLFCFRF
Spray Read
Chadwick Tromp
Atlanta Braves · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
76.3 mph
Avg LA
-20.2°
Hard-hit %
20%
Barrel %
0%
Outcomes (5 balls)
Home Run
0
Triple
0
Double
0
Single
1
Out
4
Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.

Advanced Statcast

Data Period: 5/21/2026 - 5/30/2026
Games: 9

Statcast Performance Profile

Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)

Overall Grade
F
Performance Score
11
Exit VeloHard Hit%Chase%xwOBASweet Spot%
Exit Velo
82.9 mph

Average exit velocity off the bat

Hard Hit%
18.8%

Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph

Chase%
53.2%

Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone

xwOBA
0.211

Expected weighted on-base average

Sweet Spot%
31.3%

Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle

Performance Insights

Strengths: No standout metrics

Areas for Improvement: Exit Velo, Hard Hit%

How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)

The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.

Additional Metrics

Max Exit Velo
105.0 mph
Launch Angle
8.5°
xBA
0.221
xSLG
0.273

Batted Ball Profile

Ground Ball%
43.8%
Fly Ball%
25.0%
Line Drive%
25.0%
Pop Up%
6.3%

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.