Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cole Sulser
Tampa Bay Rays · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays · Pitcher
ERA 0.00 · WHIP 2.00 · K 11% · 1 starts
COLE SULSER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
COLE
SULSER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam44%92 mph
Changeup38%84 mph
Matchup
VS ARI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
23
projected lineup
VS
ERA
0.00
WHIP
2.00
K%
11%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 31% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 15.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .621 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 22% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.0
K/GM
2.0
IP/GM
0.00
ERA
2.00
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
11% season K rate
Contact Suppression
22% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 1 starts
0 of 1 starts over
Last 5: 0.00 ERA · 11% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ARI—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 10:29 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.