COLIN REA

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

COLIN

REA

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam42%94 mph

Changeup16%88 mph

Sweeper14%83 mph

Slider12%87 mph

Sinker8%92 mph

Matchup

VS MIN LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

57

Average

projected lineup

VS

ERA

4.82

WHIP

1.47

K%

15%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	15%	25%
SwStr%	7.1%	11%
Chase%	30%	28%
xwOBA-a	.360	.315
Barrel%-a	9%	8%
HardHit%-a	37%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

3.2

K/GM

5.1

IP/GM

3.55

ERA

1.50

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

15% season K rate

Contact Suppression

9% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 10 starts

0 of 10 starts over

Last 5: 3.55 ERA · 14% K

4

4

5

3

2

2

3

4

5

2

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs MIN—

Tonight's Park

HR

-8%

Hits

-3%

2B

-15%

3B

+16%

K

+3%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

85°

Wind

6 276°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+12%

K Adj

-2%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 3:40 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.