Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Connelly Early
Boston Red Sox · Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.50 · WHIP 1.50 · K 26% · 5 starts
CONNELLY EARLY
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
CONNELLY
EARLY
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam38%94 mph
Sinker22%93 mph
Changeup12%84 mph
Sweeper10%83 mph
Slider10%87 mph
Curveball8%80 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.50
WHIP
1.50
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .330 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 39% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.2
K/GM
4.4
IP/GM
4.50
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 39% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 5 starts
0 of 5 starts over
Last 5: 4.50 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
90°
Wind
10 246°
Rain
2%
HR Adj
+25%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:51 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.