Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Eduardo Rivera
Boston Red Sox · Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 0.00 · WHIP 0.91 · K 21% · 3 starts
EDUARDO RIVERA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
EDUARDO
RIVERA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam55%96 mph
Slider31%89 mph
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
100
VS
ERA
0.00
WHIP
0.91
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 14% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .159 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 0% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 22% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.0
K/GM
2.6
IP/GM
0.00
ERA
0.91
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
0% barrel · 22% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 3 starts
0 of 3 starts over
Last 5: 0.00 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
4 261°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:45 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.