Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Edward Cabrera
Chicago Cubs · Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 8.00 · WHIP 1.56 · K 21% · 5 starts
EDWARD CABRERA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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EDWARD
CABRERA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Changeup29%94 mph
Sinker24%97 mph
Curveball19%86 mph
4-Seam19%97 mph
Slider10%91 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
8.00
WHIP
1.56
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .467 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 17% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 54% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
3.6
IP/GM
8.00
ERA
1.56
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
17% barrel · 54% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 5 starts
0 of 5 starts over
Last 5: 8.00 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
15 167°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.