Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ELIEZER ALFONZO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ELIEZER
ALFONZO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Gabriel Hughes · RHP
90.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
14
VS
ERA
0.00
WHIP
1.00
K%
9%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 92.4 | 85.8 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 22% |
| xwOBA | .184 | .324 |
| xSLG | .253 | .411 |
| Whiff% | 0% | 17% |
| Chase% | 0% | 34% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
92.4 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Hughes—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
4 217°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 9:48 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game