Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Germán Márquez
San Diego Padres · Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.02 · WHIP 1.43 · K 15% · 8 starts
GERMÁN MÁRQUEZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
GERMÁN
MÁRQUEZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam46%95 mph
Matchup
VS ARI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.02
WHIP
1.43
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 24% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .360 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 22% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.8
K/GM
4.9
IP/GM
4.74
ERA
1.30
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
22% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 8 starts
0 of 8 starts over
Last 5: 4.74 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ARI—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
74°
Wind
6 274°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:21 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.