Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Jack Flaherty
Detroit Tigers · Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.77 · WHIP 1.26 · K 27% · 10 starts
JACK FLAHERTY
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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K
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ER
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H
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JACK
FLAHERTY
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam49%94 mph
Slider22%86 mph
Knuckle-Curve18%78 mph
Matchup
VS PHI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.77
WHIP
1.26
K%
27%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .300 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
4.3
IP/GM
2.49
ERA
0.97
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
27% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 2.49 ERA · 28% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PHI—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
7 71°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 11:01 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.