Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JAMES OUTMAN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JAMES
OUTMAN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
41
Grade D
Matchup
VS — · —
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
41
VS
Rookie / call-up — no 2026 MLB starts logged yet. Season ERA / WHIP / K% will populate after this pitcher's next outing.
Statcast Matchup
No recent Statcast on file for this pitcher yet.
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
85.7 avg EV · 11.4% barrel · 34% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Pitcher—
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
15 331°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+22%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:11 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game