Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JOEY LOPERFIDO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOEY
LOPERFIDO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
52
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Luinder Avila · RHP
90.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
22
VS
ERA
4.85
WHIP
1.69
K%
21%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 92.8 | 86.1 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 8% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 25% |
| xwOBA | .032 | .306 |
| xSLG | .059 | .384 |
| Whiff% | 40% | 15% |
| Chase% | 13% | 33% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
92.8 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Avila—
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
1 150°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 9:27 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game