Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
John King
Miami Marlins · Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · Pitcher

JOHN KING
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line

JOHN
KING
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker34%90 mph
Slider22%83 mph
Sweeper18%81 mph
Changeup16%82 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
LIMITED DATA — ROOKIE/CALL-UP
VS
ERA
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WHIP
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K%
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Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 14% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 23% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .318 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 32% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
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K/GM
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IP/GM
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ERA
—
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
Strikeout data pending
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 32% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
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Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 0 starts
No recent starts
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
7 0°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:02 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
