Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JONAH HEIM
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JONAH
HEIM
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
37
Grade F
Matchup
VS Cade Cavalli · RHP
92.5 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
44
VS
ERA
3.63
WHIP
1.17
K%
27%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 87.0 | 92.8 |
| Barrel% | 9% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 30% | 60% |
| xwOBA | .322 | .416 |
| xSLG | .495 | .536 |
| Whiff% | 25% | 8% |
| Chase% | 37% | 17% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
87.0 avg EV · 8.9% barrel · 30% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Cavalli—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
+3%
2B
+5%
3B
0%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
13 201°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+23%
K Adj
-3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 4:51 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game