Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JOSE SIRI
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOSE
SIRI
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
48
Grade D
Matchup
VS Tarik Skubal · LHP
93.5 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
23
VS
ERA
3.26
WHIP
0.91
K%
32%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 86.9 | 82.0 |
| Barrel% | 11% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 26% | 21% |
| xwOBA | .346 | .281 |
| xSLG | .562 | .375 |
| Whiff% | 29% | 36% |
| Chase% | 44% | 37% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
86.9 avg EV · 11.1% barrel · 26% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Skubal0
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
10 216°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:48 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game