Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JOSH LOWE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOSH
LOWE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
53
Grade C-
Matchup
VS J.T. Ginn · RHP
90.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
45
VS
ERA
3.10
WHIP
1.34
K%
20%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 104.5 | 79.5 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 6% |
| Hard Hit% | 100% | 17% |
| xwOBA | .390 | .293 |
| xSLG | .464 | .369 |
| Whiff% | 44% | 20% |
| Chase% | 33% | 32% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
104.5 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 100% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Ginn0
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
68°
Wind
9 203°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 11:38 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game