Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JUNIOR PEREZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JUNIOR
PEREZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Tarik Skubal · LHP
93.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
1
VS
ERA
2.97
WHIP
0.92
K%
28%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 69.8 | 77.9 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 7% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 33% |
| xwOBA | .026 | .296 |
| xSLG | .029 | .440 |
| Whiff% | 29% | 24% |
| Chase% | 44% | 33% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
69.8 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Skubal—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
68°
Wind
11 289°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+17%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 9:15 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game