Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kai-Wei Teng
Houston Astros · Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 6.64 · WHIP 1.77 · K 19% · 5 starts
KAI-WEI TENG
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
KAI-WEI
TENG
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper30%84 mph
4-Seam28%93 mph
Sinker16%93 mph
Changeup12%87 mph
Curveball10%82 mph
Matchup
VS DET LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
6.64
WHIP
1.77
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 28% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .390 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.8
K/GM
4.1
IP/GM
6.64
ERA
1.77
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 5 starts
0 of 5 starts over
Last 5: 6.64 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs DET—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
9 69°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:57 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.