Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kazuma Okamoto
Toronto Blue Jays · Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves
MG Score
68
B-
Tonight's Matchup
81
Matchup
Strong matchup
vs Grant Holmes · RHP · 89.1 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
4.10
WHIP
1.41
K%
26%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
92.3
90.5
Barrel%
24.1%
17.3%
Hard Hit%
56%
48%
xwOBA
.402
.417
xSLG
.613
.643
Whiff%
33%
28%
Chase%
27%
35%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Grant Holmes.
Tonight's Park · Truist Park
Neutral parkHR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather · clear sky
Wind killing HRHR weather
-14%
Temp
76°
Wind
8 in
Rain
0%
HR/Temp/Wind colored for the hitter · Rain = game-delay risk
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
92.3
Barrel%
24.1%
Hard Hit%
56%
Sweet Spot%
33%
xwOBA
0.402
xSLG
0.613
Recent Games
Last 5
60%
3/5 games
Last 10
70%
7/10 games
Last 20
50%
10/20 games
Last 30
58%
14/24 games
AVG
.267
OBP
.333
SLG
.633
OPS
.967
HR
3
RBI
8
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/2 | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/31 | Baltimore Orioles | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Baltimore Orioles | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Baltimore Orioles | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Miami Marlins | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Miami Marlins | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Miami Marlins | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Kazuma Okamoto
Toronto Blue Jays · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
92.9 mph
Avg LA
17.6°
Hard-hit %
54%
Barrel %
21%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
8Triple
0Double
5Single
17Out
70Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/24/2026 - 6/2/2026
Games: 9
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
C+Performance Score
56Exit Velo
90.2 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
52.6%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
26.6%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.412
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
26.3%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: Hard Hit%, xwOBA
Areas for Improvement: Sweet Spot%, Chase%
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
111.2 mph
Launch Angle
15.4°
xBA
0.303
xSLG
0.684
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
36.8%
Fly Ball%
47.4%
Line Drive%
10.5%
Pop Up%
5.3%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.