Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kendry Rojas
Minnesota Twins · Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.79 · WHIP 1.60 · K 26% · 9 starts
KENDRY ROJAS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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KENDRY
ROJAS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam43%96 mph
Slider24%89 mph
Matchup
VS CLE LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.79
WHIP
1.60
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .293 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 0% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.2
K/GM
1.6
IP/GM
4.50
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
0% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 9 starts
0 of 9 starts over
Last 5: 4.50 ERA · 30% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CLE—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
68°
Wind
2 103°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-21%
K Adj
+2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:24 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.