Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kyle Hart
San Diego Padres · Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.23 · WHIP 0.55 · K 31% · 5 starts
KYLE HART
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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KYLE
HART
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper31%83 mph
Matchup
VS LAD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
66
VS
ERA
1.23
WHIP
0.55
K%
31%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .353 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 31% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.6
K/GM
1.5
IP/GM
1.23
ERA
0.55
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
31% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 31% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 5 starts
0 of 5 starts over
Last 5: 1.23 ERA · 31% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
73°
Wind
11 257°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 8:32 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.