LUCAS GIOLITO

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

LUCAS

GIOLITO

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam38%91 mph

Changeup38%79 mph

Slider18%83 mph

Curveball6%77 mph

Matchup

VS TEX LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

VS

ERA

5.11

WHIP

2.07

K%

13%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	23%	25%
SwStr%	9.3%	11%
Chase%	18%	28%
xwOBA-a	.348	.315
Barrel%-a	9%	8%
HardHit%-a	42%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

2.6

K/GM

3.9

IP/GM

6.41

ERA

2.14

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

13% season K rate

Contact Suppression

9% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Big HR park

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 6 starts

0 of 6 starts over

Last 5: 6.41 ERA · 13% K

2

1

5

3

2

2

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs TEX—

Tonight's Park

HR

+15%

Hits

-1%

2B

-4%

3B

-21%

K

0%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

72°

Wind

0

Rain

0%

HR Adj

0%

K Adj

0%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 5:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.