Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Luinder Avila
Kansas City Royals · Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.91 · WHIP 1.47 · K 20% · 10 starts
LUINDER AVILA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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LUINDER
AVILA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam31%96 mph
Sinker24%96 mph
Slider20%88 mph
Curveball16%82 mph
Changeup9%89 mph
Matchup
VS BAL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.91
WHIP
1.47
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .357 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.8
K/GM
4.0
IP/GM
3.15
ERA
1.20
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.15 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BAL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-2%
Hits
+3%
2B
-5%
3B
+32%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
9 104°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.