Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Mason Englert
Tampa Bay Rays · Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.74 · WHIP 1.35 · K 18% · 10 starts
MASON ENGLERT
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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MASON
ENGLERT
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Pitch-mix data not available.
Matchup
VS HOU LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
79
VS
ERA
2.74
WHIP
1.35
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 15% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 44% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .303 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 15% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.4
K/GM
3.1
IP/GM
1.17
ERA
1.11
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 15% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 1.17 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs HOU—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
94°
Wind
5 233°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:59 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.