Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Mason Montgomery
Pittsburgh Pirates · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.00 · WHIP 1.00 · K 53% · 10 starts
MASON MONTGOMERY
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MASON
MONTGOMERY
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam48%99 mph
Slider26%89 mph
Sinker14%98 mph
Curveball11%87 mph
Matchup
VS CLE LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
90
VS
ERA
4.00
WHIP
1.00
K%
53%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 34% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 16.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .333 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 27% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.8
K/GM
0.9
IP/GM
0.00
ERA
0.46
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
53% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 27% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 0.00 ERA · 60% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CLE—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
10 322°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+7%
K Adj
-7%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.