Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
MATT VIERLING
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
MATT
VIERLING
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
47
Grade D
Matchup
VS Reid Detmers · LHP
87.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
78
VS
ERA
4.55
WHIP
1.06
K%
29%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.8 | 97.5 |
| Barrel% | 6% | 38% |
| Hard Hit% | 40% | 62% |
| xwOBA | .324 | .645 |
| xSLG | .434 | 1.048 |
| Whiff% | 20% | 23% |
| Chase% | 41% | 33% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.8 avg EV · 6.0% barrel · 40% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Detmers1
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
76°
Wind
9 192°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game