MAX LAZAR

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

MAX

LAZAR

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam39%95 mph

Matchup

VS CIN LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

VS

ERA

3.38

WHIP

0.75

K%

20%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	26%	25%
SwStr%	13.7%	11%
Chase%	38%	28%
xwOBA-a	.416	.315
Barrel%-a	9%	8%
HardHit%-a	45%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

1.0

K/GM

1.3

IP/GM

3.38

ERA

0.75

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

20% season K rate

Contact Suppression

9% barrel · 45% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Big HR park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 4 starts

0 of 4 starts over

Last 5: 3.38 ERA · 20% K

2

1

1

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs CIN—

Tonight's Park

HR

+27%

Hits

0%

2B

-1%

3B

-24%

K

+2%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

88°

Wind

6 116°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+8%

K Adj

-2%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 10:28 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.