Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Max Meyer
Miami Marlins · Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.88 · WHIP 1.03 · K 27% · 10 starts
MAX MEYER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MAX
MEYER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper38%90 mph
Slider24%90 mph
4-Seam22%95 mph
Sinker7%94 mph
Changeup7%86 mph
Matchup
VS SEA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.88
WHIP
1.03
K%
27%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 24% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .354 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 37% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.8
K/GM
5.2
IP/GM
1.38
ERA
1.08
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
27% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 1.38 ERA · 27% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SEA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:46 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.