Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Michael Lorenzen
Colorado Rockies · Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.94 · WHIP 1.72 · K 17% · 11 starts
MICHAEL LORENZEN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MICHAEL
LORENZEN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker25%93 mph
Changeup20%85 mph
4-Seam18%94 mph
Cutter15%89 mph
Slider8%86 mph
Sweeper7%82 mph
Curveball7%83 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.94
WHIP
1.72
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 23% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .337 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 49% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.6
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
3.76
ERA
1.56
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 49% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.76 ERA · 11% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
7 247°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:56 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.