Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Mike Burrows
Houston Astros · Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 6.00 · WHIP 1.49 · K 15% · 11 starts
MIKE BURROWS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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MIKE
BURROWS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Changeup29%86 mph
4-Seam27%95 mph
Slider20%89 mph
Curveball12%78 mph
Sinker11%95 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
6.00
WHIP
1.49
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .350 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.0
K/GM
4.3
IP/GM
6.75
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.75 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
4 249°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+11%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:46 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.