Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Miles Mikolas
Washington Nationals · New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals · Pitcher
ERA 4.63 · WHIP 1.20 · K 11% · 11 starts
MILES MIKOLAS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MILES
MIKOLAS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker26%94 mph
4-Seam24%93 mph
Slider22%89 mph
Curveball17%77 mph
Changeup6%87 mph
Matchup
VS NYY LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.63
WHIP
1.20
K%
11%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 8% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 4.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .356 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.8
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
6.15
ERA
1.52
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
11% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.15 ERA · 8% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYY—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
9 85°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.