Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Mitch Keller
Pittsburgh Pirates · Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 7.03 · WHIP 1.56 · K 16% · 11 starts
MITCH KELLER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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MITCH
KELLER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam28%93 mph
Sinker21%92 mph
Sweeper16%81 mph
Curveball14%77 mph
Slider9%87 mph
Cutter9%90 mph
Matchup
VS ATL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
7.03
WHIP
1.56
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .447 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 49% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.8
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
5.13
ERA
1.37
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 49% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 5.13 ERA · 17% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ATL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
7 234°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+6%
K Adj
-8%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:47 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.