Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
NICK SOLAK
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
NICK
SOLAK
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Trevor Rogers · LHP
88.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
88
VS
ERA
6.66
WHIP
1.40
K%
13%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.9 | 90.5 |
| Barrel% | 33% | 15% |
| Hard Hit% | 67% | 50% |
| xwOBA | .307 | .484 |
| xSLG | .598 | .772 |
| Whiff% | 0% | 13% |
| Chase% | 50% | 35% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.9 avg EV · 33.3% barrel · 67% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Rogers—
Tonight's Park
HR
-2%
Hits
+3%
2B
-5%
3B
+32%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
10 180°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 11:22 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game