Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Noah Cameron
Kansas City Royals · Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.50 · WHIP 1.30 · K 23% · 11 starts
NOAH CAMERON
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
NOAH
CAMERON
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam27%93 mph
Cutter22%90 mph
Changeup20%80 mph
Curveball17%82 mph
Sinker8%91 mph
Slider7%85 mph
Matchup
VS BAL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.50
WHIP
1.30
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 25% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .446 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 15% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.4
K/GM
5.1
IP/GM
7.01
ERA
1.99
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
15% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 7.01 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BAL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-2%
Hits
+3%
2B
-5%
3B
+32%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
9 104°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:34 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.