Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Noah Schultz
Chicago White Sox · Athletics vs Chicago White Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.60 · WHIP 1.36 · K 20% · 11 starts
NOAH SCHULTZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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NOAH
SCHULTZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Cutter25%90 mph
Sweeper23%82 mph
Sinker22%95 mph
4-Seam20%95 mph
Matchup
VS OAK LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.60
WHIP
1.36
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .512 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 25% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.2
K/GM
4.7
IP/GM
6.46
ERA
1.35
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
25% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.46 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs OAK—
Tonight's Park
HR
-5%
Hits
-2%
2B
-9%
3B
-28%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
5 97°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:50 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.