Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
NOLAN SCHANUEL
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
NOLAN
SCHANUEL
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
47
Grade D
Matchup
VS Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP
91.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
28
VS
ERA
2.84
WHIP
0.98
K%
30%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 86.9 | 80.6 |
| Barrel% | 5% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 33% | 11% |
| xwOBA | .375 | .340 |
| xSLG | .526 | .421 |
| Whiff% | 23% | 30% |
| Chase% | 36% | 38% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
86.9 avg EV · 4.7% barrel · 33% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Yamamoto0
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
73°
Wind
6 215°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
Hits Adj
—
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:33 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game