Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Owen Murphy
Atlanta Braves · Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.25 · WHIP 0.25 · K 29% · 2 starts
OWEN MURPHY
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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ER
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H
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OWEN
MURPHY
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Pitch-mix data not available.
Matchup
VS TEX LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
57
VS
ERA
2.25
WHIP
0.25
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 41% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .323 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 78% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.0
K/GM
2.0
IP/GM
2.25
ERA
0.25
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 78% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 2 starts
0 of 2 starts over
Last 5: 2.25 ERA · 29% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TEX—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
91°
Wind
3 153°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:41 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.