Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Patrick Corbin
Toronto Blue Jays · Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 7.66 · WHIP 1.74 · K 18% · 7 starts
PATRICK CORBIN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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PATRICK
CORBIN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider27%79 mph
Sinker25%92 mph
Changeup23%78 mph
4-Seam13%91 mph
Cutter10%86 mph
Matchup
VS TEX LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
7.66
WHIP
1.74
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .391 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 43% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
3.3
IP/GM
6.48
ERA
1.62
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 43% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 7 starts
0 of 7 starts over
Last 5: 6.48 ERA · 22% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TEX—
Tonight's Park
HR
0%
Hits
-2%
2B
+9%
3B
-31%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:47 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.