Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Paul Blackburn
New York Yankees · New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 0.66 · WHIP 0.59 · K 23% · 10 starts
PAUL BLACKBURN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
PAUL
BLACKBURN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker32%95 mph
Changeup26%88 mph
Curveball15%81 mph
Cutter14%92 mph
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
0.66
WHIP
0.59
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .285 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 27% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.4
K/GM
1.3
IP/GM
1.35
ERA
0.90
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 27% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 1.35 ERA · 27% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:19 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.