Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pavin Smith
Arizona Diamondbacks · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks · in lineup
Tonight's Matchup
1
Matchup
Avoid
vs Shohei Ohtani · RHP · 91.2 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters · limited data
ERA
1.16
WHIP
0.87
K%
30%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
84.3
87.4
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
Hard Hit%
50%
36%
xwOBA
.241
.173
xSLG
.296
.247
Whiff%
14%
37%
Chase%
33%
26%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Shohei Ohtani: 3 PA · Low sample
AB
3
AVG
.666
OPS
1.667
HR
0
H
2
K
0
Tonight's Park · Chase Field
Pitcher's parkHR
-14%
Hits
+6%
2B
+16%
3B
+89%
K
-6%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather · Dome
Dome · neutralHR weather
0%
Temp
72°
Wind
Dome
Rain
0%
HR/Temp/Wind colored for the hitter · Rain = game-delay risk
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
84.3
Barrel%
0.0%
Hard Hit%
50%
Sweet Spot%
0%
xwOBA
0.241
xSLG
0.296
Recent Games
Last 5
40%
2/5 games
Last 10
30%
3/10 games
Last 20
45%
9/20 games
Last 30
50%
11/22 games
AVG
.200
OBP
.310
SLG
.280
OPS
.590
HR
0
RBI
2
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6/1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 3/28 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 3/27 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 8/27 | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 8/26 | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8/25 | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 8/24 | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 8/22 | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 8/20 | Cleveland Guardians | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Pavin Smith
Arizona Diamondbacks · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
92.7 mph
Avg LA
32.6°
Hard-hit %
60%
Barrel %
0%
Outcomes (5 balls)
Home Run
0Triple
0Double
0Single
1Out
4Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 6/1/2026 - 6/2/2026
Games: 2
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
FPerformance Score
18Exit Velo
84.3 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
50.0%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
33.3%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.241
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
0.0%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: Hard Hit%
Areas for Improvement: Exit Velo, xwOBA
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
95.3 mph
Launch Angle
-8.0°
xBA
0.259
xSLG
0.296
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
100.0%
Fly Ball%
N/A
Line Drive%
N/A
Pop Up%
N/A
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.