Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
PJ Poulin
Washington Nationals · New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.38 · WHIP 1.00 · K 18% · 11 starts
PJ POULIN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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PJ
POULIN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker35%89 mph
Sweeper35%79 mph
4-Seam27%90 mph
Matchup
VS NYY LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.38
WHIP
1.00
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 21% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .306 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 35% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.0
K/GM
1.3
IP/GM
1.42
ERA
0.95
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 35% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.42 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYY—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
9 85°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:51 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.